My Iowa Caucus Predictions

The Iowa Caucus is Monday, and I am going to make my best guess predictions.  I don't really trust much of the polling, since most of the polls vary in sample size and methodology.  I am basing my predictions off of some gut instincts and a keen mind.

Republican Party:  1) Ted Cruz
                                   2) Marco Rubio
                                   3) Donald Trump
                                   4) Ben Carson

Democrat Party:     1) Bernie Sanders
                                   2) Hillary Clinton

I think and have knowledge from people in Iowa, that Ted Cruz has the strongest ground game and network of all the candidates.  That is especially important in Iowa, since it is a caucus.  There are 99 counties in Iowa and thus 99 caucuses, one in each county.  A solid network of supporters to sway caucus goers is essential to getting the most votes.  I think Ted Cruz will get the win Monday night.  I think Marco Rubio will get a surprising second due to the debate on Thursday and ride a bit of momentum to pass Donald Trump.  I think the high negative ratings on Trump and his missing the debate, will hurt him and drop him in third.  I see Ben Carson coming in fourth.

On the Democrat side, I think Hillary Clinton is going to be hurt by the email scandal and I think Bernie Sanders is trending up at the right time to catch and pass Hillary Monday night.  Clinton has a tough time getting male voters and I think women, and especially younger women, are not really enamored with her either.  My gut tells me that Hillary has some serious baggage that is weighing her campaign down.

That is my quick analysis and prediction for Iowa.  I welcome your thoughts on it.


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