The Republican Dilemma

In the wake of the New Hampshire primary, I wanted to add some observations and analysis.  The prevalent opinion is that Donald Trump is the man to beat as we wind down this long campaign trail.  He is leading in the polls in most of the states and has the momentum from his win last night in New Hampshire.  As a staunch conservative thinker, I believe that most people who think like I do, find it hard to stomach Mr. Trump as the Republican nominee.

The Republican Party has a dilemma and it will be very interesting to see how this plays out in the upcoming weeks.  There can be no doubt, this is really a three man contest between Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.  I would hazard a guess that most conservatives would prefer Mr. Cruz as the nominee, and I would as well.  The knock on Cruz is that he isn't well liked in Washington DC, but I seriously find that a positive.   He most closely has stuck to conservative principles and ideals and has fought the establishment fiercely.

Marco Rubio is also a fairly solid conservative, but his stance on immigration and standing up with the Gang of Eight is a major sticking point with some conservatives, including myself.  He would definitely be the next best choice after Ted Cruz.  The rub on him is that he is a bit robotic, and that seems to have stuck at least with New Hampshire primary voters.  It will be interesting to see how he responds to this adversity as we move towards Super Tuesday.

Donald Trump is definitely the most intriguing and fascinating of the three.  He is bombastic, arrogant, brash, and narcissistic.  He is the classic showman and snake oil salesman who lures people in with his antics and gets them to buy into his magical cure.  He is clearly a progressive liberal who is masquerading as a conservative.  You get the feeling that he will just be very unpredictable if he became our next president.

As I write this piece, I am of the belief this could end up being a brokered convention and a total free-for-all.  I am not sold on any of the polling that is out there, and I think Mr. Trump has a ceiling of about 30% or so in solid support.  Most of the states coming up will be proportional in rewarding of the delegates. Florida is a winner takes all state and I don't know if Rubio can muster a win in his home state.  If he does, and Ted Cruz wins his home state of Texas, and Trump wins a few of the other states, I can't see anyone getting the 1237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.

If it does become a brokered convention, then the Republican dilemma will be played out on the biggest stage of all, for all the world to see.  That will ultimately be the true test of how much of a hold the establishment still has on the outcome of the nominee.  It will be the battle of conservatives versus moderates and how much the eventual loser will be able to lick their wounds and support the winner.  The future of this country is dependent on who wins this struggle.  Too many times the Republicans have offered up a RINO as the nominee for president and it has been a dire mistake.  From Bob Dole to John McCain to Mitt Romney, the establishment candidates have had their chances and couldn't seal the deal.  If not a true conservative thinker now, at this crucial point in history, then when?


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